Technique of assessment of damage to the fuel and energy complex enterprise given the received group of measures compensating the negative consequences with use strategic planning in the operation of the automated system of fire and explosion

Samarin I., Strogonov A.

The process of modeling the risks of fire and explosion situations at the facilities of the fuel and energy complex (FEC) using the methodology of strategic planning is considered. Support of management on such objects is possible at use the automated system of fire and explosion (ASFEP) as a part of the automated process control system. Subsystem ASFEP require improvements. The purpose of the modeling process is the reduction of possible damage. Author introduces the definition of “risk of a dangerous situation” through the concept of probability. There are proposed the graph structure for the facility of the FEC. It bases on the state of the objects of protection and transitions given of dangerous situations. Two types of square matrices (with probabilities and maximum damage) represent the transition graph. When multiplying them, a matrix of risks of dangerous situations is obtained. This matrix can be used to estimate the integral damage. It is necessary to take into account corrective actions at strategic planning to prevent dangerous situations. Decision matrices allow determining the importance of a certain event to ensure fire safety (FS). There are presented two versions of calculation of probability of occurrence of a dangerous situation. As a result, the damage compensation coefficient is proposed. Its values form the compensation vector of FS measures at the facility of FEC.

Keywords:automated process control system; dangerous situation; fire safety; fire safety measures; risk of a dangerous situation; strategic planning; fuel and energy complex; decision matrix; damage; management support.