Forecasting technique of readiness of units of fire-fighting equipment of APCS at enterprises of fuel and energy complex using strategic planning

Prus Yu., Kryuchkov A., Samarin I., Strogonov A.

The method of assessment of forecasting of readiness of fire forces and means at the enterprise of fuel and energy complex (FEC) using strategic planning is considered. This method can be applied in the process of control support in monitoring the readiness of pieces of fire-fighting equipment of automated process control systems (APCS) to the occurrence of dangerous situations associated with fires and explosions. The aim of this monitoring is identifying vulnerabilities of fire safety at FEC facilities using the graph of strategic planning. The construction of the forecasting model is based on the analysis of the functioning of the system of fire forces and means of FEC facility. The system makes direct and reverse transitions between individual states. The process of forecasting and monitoring is going in such system. To simplify the analysis of the system operation the simulated transition process was adopted by Markov process. Taking into account the described function of the intensity of the flow of adverse events detected during monitoring for separate units of equipment, as well as the intensity of the flow of recovery events for the lower level of aggregated units of fire-fighting equipment, the equations of readiness of fire forces and means of some facility of FEC are determined in the form of Kolmogorov equations. The proposed technique can be used in the control part of the APCS. This part is called automated system of fire and explosion protection. It ensures the implementation of fire safety. An integral part of this system is an automated fire and explosion prevention system, for which the application of the described method is actual.

Keywords:readiness of fire forces, degree of readiness, readiness assessment, readiness indicator, automated process control system, automated system of fire and explosion protection, fuel and energy complex, management support, fire safety, fire equipment, piece of equipment, fire automatic, strategic planning, monitoring, hierarchy, plan.