MODELING AND MANAGEMENT OF TRANSPORT RISKS

Dolgov Andrey Alexandrovich

Subject. The paper raises the issue of increasing the efficiency of managing transport risks, it is proposed to determine their probability using modeling, as well as to assess their possible consequences. Methods. The article also dis-cusses various methods of modeling transport risks, including statistical analy-sis, risk event modeling, network structure analysis and others. Each of these methods has its own advantages and limitations. Results. A solution to the problem is proposed based on the method of multi-criteria comparative evalu-ation of objects taking into account objectively existing factors of uncertainty. Conclusions. It follows that the proposed information-statistical approach to the problem of morphological and typological analysis of risk assessment op-tions is prone to errors due to a priori information presented in various forms. Therefore, the justified use of various methods of modeling transport risks al-lows assessing the probability of occurrence of risk events, identifying the most risky places and taking measures to reduce risks.

Keywords:transport, factors, risk, methods, modeling, advantages, disadvantages, risk analysis, risk management