ASSESSMENT OF THE DEMAND FOR SPECIALTIES IN THE LABOR MARKET IN CONDITIONS OF VARIABLE PROFESSIONAL MOBILITY

Karavaev Vsеvolod S., Tarasyev Alexander A.

In the context of dynamic changes in the labor market caused by technological innovations, demographic shifts and globalization, professional mobility is becoming a key factor in the adaptation of workers. Traditional methods of assessment the demand for professions are imperfect and do not take into account the dynamic transitions of workers between specialties. This article examines professional mobility as the ability and willingness of employees to transition between professions and various sectors of the economy. The analysis of scientific literature allowed us to compile an overview of existing methods for determining the relevance of professions. A methodology is proposed for assessing the demand for specialties, taking into account variable professional mobility, based on a dynamic equation of changes in the number of specialists by industry and region. The use of probabilistic models of the transition between specialties and wage accounting makes it possible to more accurately predict the employment structure. The development of effective methods and tools in the field of assessing the demand for specialties helps to increase the adaptability of the vocational education system and meet the needs of employers in qualified personnel. Professional mobility significantly changes the demand for specialties in the labor market. The proposed methodology allows us to take into account both the current demand for specialties and the dynamics of transitions between them.

Keywords:labor market, professional mobility, demand for specialties, dynamic modeling, employment forecasting